Introduction: Tertiary-level ophthalmology centers play a critical role in managing complex ocular pathologies by providing specialized clinical expertise and advanced technical infrastructure. The clinical and demographic profile of patients seeking tertiary care varies considerably across age groups because of differences in disease epidemiology, healthcare accessibility, and referral practices. Population ageing is accompanied by a growing burden of chronic and sight-threatening eye diseases, whereas younger patients more often require urgent care. Quantitative age-specific estimates of demand for each type of tertiary service (outpatient, emergency, and inpatient) are therefore needed for evidence-based planning of services and resource allocation.
Purpose: To assess age-specific rates of primary outpatient consultations, emergency consultations, and inpatient admissions at a tertiary-level ophthalmology center in Azerbaijan and to describe age-related trends in these indicators using regression modeling.
Materials and Methods: A retrospective epidemiological study was conducted at the National Center of Ophthalmology named after Academician Zarifa Aliyeva using 2024 patient databases. Data on primary outpatient consultations, emergency consultations, and inpatient admissions were analyzed. Patients were stratified into 12 age groups (15–19, 20–24, 25–29, 30–34, 35–39, 40–44, 45–49, 50–54, 55–59, 60–64, 65–69, and ≥70 years). Annual rates per 100,000 population were calculated using national age-specific demographic data and are presented as mean ± standard error (SE). Non-linear age-related trends were modeled using polynomial regression (least squares method), and model fit was assessed using the coefficient of determination (R²). Differences between age groups were assessed using Pearson’s chi-square test; statistical significance was set at p ≤ 0.05.
Results: Primary consultation rates varied significantly with age (p = 0.001), peaking at 65–69 years (749.6 ± 17.63 per 100,000 population) and reaching their lowest level at 15–19 years (147.0 ± 5.18), a roughly fivefold difference. The age-related pattern was non-linear and was adequately described by a sixth-degree polynomial regression model (R² = 0.7582). Emergency consultation rates ranged from 13.9 ± 2.53 in the 60–64-year group to 145.8 ± 18.50 in the 35–39-year group, a tenfold range. In contrast to primary consultations and inpatient admissions, emergency consultation rates rose from the youngest group (15–19 years) and then declined in older age groups (R² = 0.812). Inpatient admission rates increased markedly with age, from 43.9 ± 2.83 in the 15–19-year group to a peak of 702.6 ± 17.08 in the 65–69-year group (a 16-fold increase), and then declined by about 10% to 628.6 ± 13.74 among patients aged ≥70 years. The age-related trend in inpatient admission rates was very well described by the regression model (R² = 0.9573), which explained about 96% of the variance.
Conclusion: Healthcare-seeking behavior at the tertiary ophthalmology level is strongly age-dependent, and the three types of care show distinct age profiles. Demand for emergency care peaks in early-to-mid adulthood (35–39 years), whereas primary consultations and inpatient admissions are concentrated among older adults (65 years and older). Age-specific rates and regression models may be a useful tool for planning staffing, bed capacity, and the organization of services. Because the analysis is based on one year of data from a single center, the models should be validated using data from additional years and settings.
References (Vancouver Style)